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#68085 - 08/27/05 07:59 AM 299 Housing Market Study
drobin Offline
Member

Registered: 06/03/05
Posts: 59
Loc: Boston
National City Corp. recently conducted a study of 299 housing markets. The outcome was some markets overpriced, while others are down. Just curious if anyone out there in these markets that are investors or work with investors see some truth in the numbers. Thanks
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#68086 - 08/27/05 08:03 AM Re: 299 Housing Market Study
drobin Offline
Member

Registered: 06/03/05
Posts: 59
Loc: Boston
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#68087 - 08/27/05 10:46 AM Re: 299 Housing Market Study
Realty Check Offline
Major Contributor

Registered: 09/19/03
Posts: 2410
Loc: Panama City FL
Several other Financial groups have challenged National Cities evaluation procedure.

National City took what todays prices are and compared them to what prices were and their long term rates of appreciation have historically been.. in engineering we call that "french curving"... attempting to extrapolate future data points. Really a very poor way to evaluate real estate or any other market.

National City failed to even consider the effects of the Baby Boomer generation, the migration to warmer locations of businesses and people, the failure of the "rust belt" industrial areas, improving and deteriorating infrastructures of different locations, evolution of smaller businesses as a base of local jobs and economy.

A simple french curve approach may make for good reading... but it is over all unrealistic.

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#68088 - 08/27/05 02:49 PM Re: 299 Housing Market Study
drobin Offline
Member

Registered: 06/03/05
Posts: 59
Loc: Boston
Once again you've shed some light in a way that was previously not considered many, many thanks Realty Check.
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