Any Canadians want to comment on this post/vid:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/stoneleigh-and-max-keiser-on-canadian.html

Seems quite extreme.

I was going to watch the video but I decided not to waste the 30 minutes after reading the interview snips.

Bottom line is that this guy lost all credibility in my opinion when he claimed a 90% price drop. I doubt even the US had a 90% price drop.

All reports for the next year indicate that there may be a 1% price reduction in the house market. Interest rates rose in 2010 and the Bank of Canada wants to push them up but they are capped by being unable to move too far away from US rates.

What he ignores are 2 significant difference between the US and Canada. 1) Mortgage interest is not tax deductable in Canada, so Canadians pay off there mortgages quickly so No Short Sale here. 2) Canada has an effective system of government which allows the governing party to implement it's agenda and remove parts of the prior governments agenda that are not working.

I was taught that people with long noseses were liars, they used Pinocchio as a teaching aid when I was growing up, this so called expert has a long nose.

We have 100,000 new people coming to Toronto each year most of
them prefer to live indoors. Many of them come here with a lot
of money, wealthy people from Iraqi, Iran, Russians with suitcases full of money. When we start making a living wage the powers that be allow tons of people in from 3rd world countries to make sure that wages stay low. Not really nice but how it is. These guys also like to live indoors.

We also have tons of Muslims coming here as well, many had planned to go to America but changed their minds because you guys always give them a hard time
at the airport.(something about their shoes that worries you) I love these guys they have something called Sharia Law which is great for all men, it means that your wife has to say yes when ever you want to go for a "roll in the hay" or you can choose to have more than one wife and it's all okay with the local priest, just means that you have to sell a couple more homes a year, no big deal just do as Lucky does, I think he has ten wives.

Most move up buyers put down a 25 percent deposit when they
upgrade.

We dont have crooks like Goldman Sachs up here, please keep them in
your world we don't want those guys around stealing all our money.


A correction is long overdue, but it wont be 90%.


Don't believe a single word the media tells you they are all in bed with Wall Street and the Government.


KJMENDY, you seem to enjoy this forum a lot but don't feel the need to thank Perky for tending to it, just curious to know why?

KJMENDY,

Can you explain how these differences would prevent a substantial decline in housing prices if there is a bubble and it burst?

Hunter - I do not know what you mean but "thanks Perky!"

Broker,

I could probably write an entire book on point #2 but I'm not going to today, I will say that Obama would not have ended up with the watered down healthcare bill you got this year under the Canadian system of government.

As to point #1, it is my impression that the biggest cause of the US housing market melt down is that American have no incentive to pay off there mortgage, since paying down your mortgage will increase your income taxes. So in times of rising housing prices it would infact be a benefit to refinance your home to reduce your income tax and get a cheque to buy a big screen tv. So when the US economy hit the wall and people began to lose there jobs, home owners could not afford there mortgages and had to sell there homes thus putting downward pressure on housing prices and putting a lot of other home owners in a short sale position.

That is the idea in a nutshell I could write a book on this topic as well but I'll leave that to my blog.

Agents and Brokers, "Perky, thank you for being our moderator".
I realize it's optional, just a reminder.

The guy is an idiot.

(I couldn't say it in less words)

Dave

Here's another post on canadian lending/debt.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/canadian-borrowing-gone-mad-look-at.html

Interesting article, my brothers wife is a senior manager in the bad debt department of a major bank. She has been worried about this for the past 3 years, her concern if if rates go up a little it will drown a lot of people and her department will be swamped with what we call Power of Sales.(bank foreclosures). Many high earners she claims are walking a fine line and it wont take much to put them into a world of pain and increase her work load dramatically. I thought she was just being negative but based on your article she is right. Her days are long, she leaves at 7am and returns home at 8pm and
it flat out terrified of the additional work load that a rate rise will create
for her.

Another view for 2011

The following website presents a report by Murray Miskin a well known and respected Ontario lawyer who closely monitors the Ontario real estate market and which may be more in line with reality.

http://www.adrworks.com/2011/01/ontario-real-estate-market-update/

Important NoticeThis information is provided as basic educational information by the author and is not a substitute for the advice of an expert and/or the advice of a lawyer. There is NO representation as to legality, accuracy, correctness of the herein information and the reader is strongly urged to consult a lawyer in the relevant jurisdiction to ensure accuracy before acting on this information .

The Montreal Gazette has its own opinion.

A housing Bubble requires excessive amounts of inventory
Toronto has 4.5 million people in teh GTA and less than 13,000 homes available and an absorption rate of 5-6 weeks.

That is a Sellers Market.

http://livingintoronto.housingstorm.com/2010/12/30/295/

I am not selling books
I sell houses and there is nothing for sale

How will prices drop If there is no inventory?
Will immigration employment education demographics cease?

Rates continue low although there is pressure to increase, consumer and government debt is excessive sout of the border.

I strongly believe that there is going to be a fairly big economic shift which will cause a lot of people to go into considerable debt or broke. There are tons of families who are home owners with a large amount of consumer debt. When this shift happens a lot of people won't be able to afford their mortgage payments, therefore foreclosing their house and forcing them to rent.

This is why I believe in the buy and hold for now and prepare to buy in the near future.

Happy Investing

The US housing bubble burst at a time when the housing inventory was the lowest in my 20+ year career. It was a seller's market by all standards and it popped overnight.