All of us here already knew this.

After all we are on the front lines selling and BPO’ing; getting our information months before it hits the news.

All real estate markets are local, but here in the northeast I do not see a turnaround yet.

I just did a few BPOs on recently built current REO listings in excellent condition that are priced far below good recent comps yet are lingering on the market unsold.

I can not explain why they have not sold other than there are no buyers at any price.

When the subject is 6 years old in excellent condition and is priced 47% below an identical 4 month old sold comp yet still remains unsold after 159 DOM, will another price drop sell the house?

We are either in the buying opportunity of a lifetime or…

With real unemployment as high as 17% why would prices rebound at all?

Just the last 3 or 4 days I have rec'd. numerous agent calls on my listings to set up showings; many of those listings are similar to yours BPO Drone. One telling perstective...I have 4 under contract right now. 1 buyer is a local real estate atty. 2nd buyer is a local real estate agent buying as an owner occ. 3rd is a first time buyer getting a heck of a deal and walking smack into 20k of equity. 4th is me and a partner buying an investment property.

I mean at some point buyers have to get over their fear and look at a deal on it's merits. I think that is starting to happen.

I have noticed the last 6 months have been very hot and cold. Hit or miss, all or nuttin'. Contracts come in waves and then the quiet sets in for about 5 weeks.

It reminds me about a famous quote I heard when I was starting doing RE " Be fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fear" well said at that time back on 05 I did not understand the meaning, now I do.

One thing that has baffled me is that on quite a few of my bpo's, there are sale comps that were purchased with cash, and I double check title/assessor data to confirm, but they are paying well over many of the other similar properties. Sometimes very short DOM.

Then I see the investor flips at way over the top of the market prices, higher than any comparable sale in the last 365 days, and REO's not in nearly as good of a condition priced similar to the rehabbed investor flip.

They have long DOM.

My "personality" tends to come out in the comment sections of these properties!

I think what you're witnessing is realy "a good sign".

I've written about this before, based on the experience we had after the S&L Banking Crisis of the 1980s, and the introduction of mandatory appraisals that we live with today. If I can find it I'll put in a link. The current market has dwarfed the S&L Crisis into a mere footnote in history.

The phenomenon is that Cash Buyers are a necessary ingredient to establishing a bottom, or a base. Without them, transactions that are based upon borrowed money and Appraisals will tend to perpetuate a downward price curve . . . . just like escalating prices projected a buoyant continually rising market. I think that without CASH, we'd continue in the same direction FOREVER.

Transactions based on "CASH" represent True Market Values. Months afterwards, Appraisers will be able to factor in those purchases into the new sales that are reliant on borrowed money (and their "arms-length" appraisals). Then we can (hopefully) start the cycle all over again. They'll probably always be inclined make an overstatement of the future highs . . . . and be more pessimistic in predicting future lows. There has to be a better way ?

So, let's give thanks that there are at least some Buyers who still have a bit of CASH to get us out of the rut we're in.

Who was president when the S&L scandal happened?
And who was president during our recent bank meltdown/bailout?



All-cash usually sells for less than financed so I give it an upward adjustment for values.

No offense intended Artiste, but in my market you can't (and shouldn’t) always do that. Some neighborhoods are purely cash driven. The inner city in my area is all cash investors looking for rental properties. I rarely if ever see any type of financing. Most of these homes would not qualify for FHA/VA financing due to condition. Many are boarded up slum lord properties to be honest with you.

The same can be said for the local condo/townhouse market. Unless one has at least 30% down, you won't be able to get financing for these units. While I don't sell R.E. anymore, I know enough agents locally that do and have told me as such. The vast majority of these condo/townhouse sales are cash as it is difficult if not next to impossible to purchase these units any other way. The banks are just too gun-shy to lend on these properties that are experiencing such rapid depreciation of values.

So while I understand your reasoning, here in Florida unless you have cash it just isn't going to happen in various circumstances.

That's my response to the question "When will it turn around?" The market will turn when people have jobs. Prices will start to rise when people's wages rise. When will that be? Who knows.

There isn't going to be appreciation based on loose lending for a long long time. Its going to have to come from real increases in income.

Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan.
Clinton, Bush, and Obama.

All well intended leaders, with small cadres of do-gooders carrying out what they thought were solid policy decisions.

There have been many Cooks in the Kitchen, and these are not "Date-Specific Events".

Sometimes it's conspiracy by neglect, and the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Often the repercussions of minor experimental changes in the Law and Regulations don't manifest their full effect until decades after implementation when society has adjusted to the change and either come to fully embrace it or learned how to abuse it . . . . or both.

Some experiments fail and lead to disastrous consequences that destroy entire nations.

"The market will turn when people have jobs"

I am not a big believer in this statement.

I would counter it's not how many jobs are created but the TYPES of jobs created is the key.

I am not being political but I remember Bush and others touting all the new job creation. Sure the jobs were created but they were crap jobs at minimum wage.

What really drives the economy is quality jobs that pay really well that leave families and individuals with expendable income and not just enough money to keep the lights on.

The problem is with raising minimum wage is it just makes cost go up and does nothing for earning power.You have to earn more and be able to buy at the same prices as before to increase buying power.

So I would like to see more high quality jobs created than just more hourly positions.

I agree. The start of our current situation was when manufacturing jobs started going outside the US.

Those who make things add value and create real wealth.

Those who send their wealth somewhere else to purchase what they make soon will have no wealth.