I've been participating in a local Real Estate Investment Group for the past several years. When I started with this group, they were meeting at a local Holiday Inn which had a small conference room. But they got so big that they had to expand to a much larger place. I let my membership lapse a while ago, but now I'm noticing that they're starting to have at least some of their meetings back at the Holiday Inn. I'm thinking that when they move back permanently, that's going to be my "buy" signal. Notice I didn't say anything about canaries or coal mines, haha.

I like your way of thinking. Its quite hard to become wealthy by doing what everyone else is doing.

Hope it works out for you - keep us posted.

To play devil's advocate for a moment, it still helps to KNOW what the other local investors are doing, because if everyone's buying up an area you'll want to know about it. Also, real estate investment clubs can keep you posted on where NOT to invest, due to a change in zoning or demography, etc.
Just a thought,
_________________________
Brian
Lease Agreement

Good comment. And I have rejoined the local investor group. But one thing I am noticing with my REO properties is that people are still overpaying for the junkers. Mostly it's new investors, too, at least the ones i've seen. The canary is still alive and kicking.

Six months later, and the canary is still kicking. My local investors group is downsized, but they are still renting out the more expensive big place. Still not motivated to move to smaller quarters. Still living high on the hog from all the dues collected when Real Estate Investors clubs were the rage. And still too rich for my blood.

Hm I agree, I do the same.

Well the canary has croaked. The investor group is back to the smaller quarters for good. But I am still seeing too many investors overpaying on my REO properties. Prices have corrected a great deal, but still not enough for me. Maybe by next winter I'll put my buyers hat back on.

The mind trick is, that for new investors the houses are way down. But then getting money back out when time to flip is an issue because the market is still saturated.

Saturated coal weighs more - wetting down coal is a method of artificially raising value, not unlike using "no-doc" mortgage loans.

Keep an eye on inflation. I think it was up 2% in March. That would be 24% in one year.

I saw that report and felt that was the annualized rate. I will look into it.

Yep, 2% is the for sure the annual rate not the monthly; most experts are not concerned YET with inflation..

It will take years to clear housing stock. That means prices might drop further yet, especilally as investors leave the market or can't keep up with new foreclosures. Considering that the biggest thing driving purchases is jobs, take those forecasts into account. If you think that the jobs market will improve in the next year, try incorporating that into your estimates of where prices will go.